A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
