A mere two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
